Possible scenario
Quiet Channel Holds
40% Chance
Riyadh accepts actionable intelligence on Houthi launch sites and supply routes while continuing to reject any public Israeli military role. This is the most likely path because it lets Saudi Arabia improve defenses after the Riyadh airport strikes without paying the political cost of normalization.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Energy -0.1%
Tickers
- ESLT+0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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