Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation Escalates
25% Chance
The Houthis frame the intelligence transfer as evidence that Riyadh has joined an Israeli campaign and respond with renewed long-range attacks. This scenario is plausible because the group has already rejected talks and used strikes near Riyadh to raise its leverage.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.2%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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