Possible scenario
Ceasefire Track Revives
20% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and Washington use the Saudi-Israeli intelligence controversy to push all sides back toward talks before retaliation becomes uncontrollable. Riyadh has an incentive to cap the conflict, and the Houthis may accept talks if they can claim deterrence after the airport strikes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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