Possible scenario
China Accelerates Substitution
20% Chance
Beijing could treat the Oracle lease as proof that Chinese AI firms remain dependent on U.S.-controlled infrastructure. Policy support would likely shift faster toward Huawei Ascend, SMIC manufacturing capacity, and domestic cloud stacks.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Tickers
- NVDA-1.7%
- ORCL-1.2%
- AMZN-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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