Possible scenario
Political Target Campaign
25% Chance
Iran attempts to act on the order by targeting US political symbols, elected officials, embassies, party offices, or campaign infrastructure. The most likely version is disruption by US and allied security services, but even failed plots would deepen the crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.