Possible scenario
Contained Regional Retaliation
40% Chance
Iran retaliates through missiles, drones, and allied militias against US military and diplomatic assets in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf rather than immediately attacking political targets on US soil. Washington responds with air-defense deployments and selected strikes, but both sides initially avoid declaring an open-ended war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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