Possible scenario
Probe Reaches Insiders
25% Chance
Despite the blocked parliamentary probe, prosecutors or regulators pursue evidence involving AKP-linked business networks, municipalities, or foundations. This would deepen political risk for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s party and raise concerns about selective enforcement and elite infighting.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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