Possible scenario
Controlled Containment Prevails
45% Chance
The AKP uses its parliamentary majority to prevent a broad opposition-led inquiry while prosecutors and the vice president-led liquidation board keep the process under executive control. The most likely path is a narrow legal case focused on fund managers and intermediaries rather than senior AK Party figures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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