Possible scenario
Yields Stabilize
20% Chance
Markets could decide the recent move has gone far enough, especially if investors expect housing weakness to cool growth and inflation. Mortgage rates remain high, but a pause in Treasury selling gives rate-sensitive assets a modest relief rally.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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