Possible scenario
Rates Grind Higher
40% Chance
The most likely path is that mortgage rates continue to follow the recent rise in Treasury yields after the Fed's September hike. Buyers remain rate-sensitive, but the immediate market impact is contained because the move has been building for several weeks.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.6%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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