Possible scenario
Housing Demand Freezes
25% Chance
Higher borrowing costs quickly show up in purchase applications, cancellations, and softer builder traffic. This scenario would make the mortgage-rate headline more consequential for housing equities than for broad financial markets.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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