Possible scenario
Military Posture Escalates
20% Chance
The US and UK respond by visibly hardening military posture around bomber deployments, Gulf shipping lanes, and NATO bases. This scenario remains plausible because the alleged target was US aircrew, but allied leaders are still likely to calibrate actions below open conflict.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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