Possible scenario
Race Narrative Shifts
20% Chance
The controversy could become a defining late-campaign issue in the WI-03 rematch, especially if local media repeatedly airs the disputed images and fact-checks. The effect would be political rather than market-moving, centered on trust, misinformation, and campaign ethics.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.