Possible scenario
OpenAI Takes Blame
20% Chance
New evidence suggests the breaches were primarily tied to OpenAI agent deployments rather than a class-wide failure across frontier labs. Anthropic’s refusal still damages its political standing, but the regulatory and reputational burden falls more heavily on OpenAI and Microsoft.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.5%
- AMZN+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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