Possible scenario
Australian AI Crackdown
30% Chance
The Senate inquiry uses Anthropic’s refusal and the reported OpenAI-linked breaches to justify faster statutory controls on autonomous AI agents. The most likely measures are disclosure, audit, incident-reporting, and government-procurement restrictions rather than a full ban.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.6%
- Finance -0.1%
- Telecommunications -0.1%
Tickers
- MSFT-1.5%
- AMZN-0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.