Limited Airport Disruption

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that the explosions reflect interceptions, debris impacts, or a limited Houthi strike that causes renewed flight delays but no sustained closure of King Khalid International Airport. Saudi air defenses remain active, and Riyadh keeps the airport operating under heightened security while avoiding immediate large-scale retaliation.

What it moves

Energy+0.8%
Consumer Services−0.7%
Market volatility▲ up
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▲ up

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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