Possible scenario
Prolonged Legal Dispute
15% Chance
Beijing escalates procedurally by invoking the state agreement and possibly international trade forums, but avoids immediate commercial retaliation. The dispute creates legal and compliance uncertainty around DeepSeek derivatives without forcing near-term decoupling.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services -0.2%
Tickers
- PLTR+0.7%
- MSFT+0.3%
- AMZN+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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