Possible scenario
Limited Tit-for-Tat
30% Chance
China responds with targeted administrative measures rather than a sweeping technology rupture. The most likely response is a review of U.S. AI services, cloud vendors, or government procurement exposure, keeping the impact concentrated in technology and professional services.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.2%
- Business Services -0.4%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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