Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
45% Chance
Washington and Beijing keep the dispute inside the AI guardrails framework agreed in September 2026. China continues to denounce the federal ban publicly, but neither side immediately broadens restrictions beyond government systems.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.5%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- MSFT+0.5%
- +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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