Possible scenario
Broader Policy Escalation
18% Chance
The leasing deal becomes political evidence that existing export controls are being bypassed. U.S. officials broaden restrictions from chip shipments to financing, leasing, cloud access, and beneficial ownership checks tied to Chinese state entities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.6%
- Telecommunications -0.4%
Tickers
- -5.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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