Possible scenario
Reform Mandate Broadens
25% Chance
The first woman prime minister uses PAM's election lead and symbolic mandate to move quickly on social spending, housing and administrative reforms. The near-term effect is moderately positive for domestic cyclicals, construction materials and banks exposed to mortgage and infrastructure finance.
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.3%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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