Possible scenario
APEC Delay Resolves
45% Chance
The delay proves to be tactical, preserving diplomatic flexibility before the November APEC summit while keeping the arms package alive. Washington approves or substantially re-approves the Taiwan sale shortly after the summit, limiting damage to Anduril and other defense suppliers.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Technology +0.1%
Tickers
- AVAV+1.0%
- LMT+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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