Scenario description
Assume that by 2027-03-31, the Arsenal-2 submarine-yard project at Sparrows Point encounters a material execution setback or operational rescoping after its October 2026 launch. The initiating change is a reported delay, suspension, cancellation, major redesign, reduced Maryland facility scope, materially changed government/private funding arrangement, permitting denial or significant permitting holdup, labor or construction disruption, supplier or prime-yard integration problem, or contract modification that pushes back or narrows the facility-development path. The reported 2030 initial-operations target and $6.6 billion headline program may be revised, placed under formal review, or left uncertain; exact cost overruns, revised schedules, and affected work packages may remain unavailable.