Possible scenario
Offensive Stalls
27% Chance
The Houthis use prepared positions, drones, mines, and anti-tank missiles to slow the Saudi-backed push along the Red Sea coast. Bab al-Mandeb remains contested, extending disruption to Red Sea shipping and keeping Saudi Arabia under missile threat.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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