Possible scenario
Maritime Pause Negotiated
20% Chance
Oman, the United Nations, and Saudi Arabia press for a narrow security arrangement to prevent Bab al-Mandeb from becoming a prolonged regional flashpoint. The Houthis may accept a temporary formula if it preserves leverage while reducing the risk of direct U.S., British, or Saudi escalation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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