Possible scenario
Sanctions Backlash
20% Chance
Congressional hawks and European officials argue that a bypass would weaken the sanctions architecture created after the Ukraine invasion. The talks become politically costly for Washington, raising the odds of tighter enforcement rather than relief.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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