Possible scenario
Limited Diesel Waiver
38% Chance
Washington and Moscow reach a narrow technical arrangement allowing Russian diesel to move through approved intermediaries without formally lifting core sanctions. This is the most likely path because it provides supply relief while preserving political deniability for both governments.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Industrials +0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Tickers
- VLO-1.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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