Possible scenario
Houthi Escalation Tests Pact
22% Chance
Iran-backed Houthis test the new Saudi-UAE alignment with drone, missile, or maritime attacks near Red Sea shipping lanes. This remains a meaningful risk given the recent threat pattern and the Houthis' incentive to show that Gulf coordination cannot constrain them.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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