Possible scenario
Targeted EU Restrictions
45% Chance
EU leaders convert the new market-exclusion authority into a targeted deterrent rather than a blanket ban. The most likely use is against sectors tied to coercion, dual-use technology, electric vehicles, public procurement, and critical minerals leverage.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
- Industrials -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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