Possible scenario
Retaliatory Spiral
20% Chance
Beijing treats the EU authority as a hostile market-access weapon and responds before Brussels finalizes any exclusions. The result is a sharper trade confrontation affecting rare earths, autos, luxury goods, approvals, and procurement on both sides.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -1.8%
- Technology -1.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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