Possible scenario
Negotiated Off-Ramp
25% Chance
China and the EU avoid immediate escalation by opening technical talks on export controls, procurement rules, and coercion complaints. The market reads the new EU power as leverage for negotiation rather than a trigger for an imminent commercial rupture.
Initial impacts
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Technology +0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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