Possible scenario
Closures Persist
32% Chance
Teacher-union participation gives the student blockades greater staying power, keeping hundreds of high schools shut or partially operating. The government avoids major concessions, and disruption remains concentrated in education rather than spilling decisively into transport or energy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.