Possible scenario
Split Congress Returns
34% Chance
Trump's appearances help Republicans defend Senate seats, but suburban House districts swing Democratic. The result is divided government, with the White House facing more oversight but retaining enough Senate support to block most Democratic legislation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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