Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Congress
40% Chance
Trump's 10-state blitz improves Republican turnout enough to offset the usual presidential-party midterm drag. GOP candidates benefit most in working-class districts and Sun Belt states where Trump remains personally popular.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.4%
- Finance +0.3%
- Industrials +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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