Possible scenario
Democratic Late Wave
20% Chance
Trump's heavy campaigning energizes his base but also mobilizes Democratic and independent voters in suburbs. The midterm curse reasserts itself, especially in districts where Republican candidates are closely tied to the president.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.3%
- Healthcare +0.2%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.