Possible scenario
Capacity Constraints Bite
18% Chance
Demand from Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Walmart, and other large customers begins to exceed the amount of nuclear capacity that can be contracted without uprates, restarts, or new generation. Constellation benefits from scarcity pricing, but execution risk rises as buyers compete for a limited supply of firm clean power.
Secondary impacts
- Utilities +0.6%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- CEG+3.3%
- AMZN-0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.