Possible scenario
Regulatory Delay
20% Chance
Regulators may decide the proposal is too novel for rapid approval, especially because single-stock perpetuals combine equity exposure, futures law, DeFi rails, and retail-access concerns. This scenario delays launch without necessarily ending the regulated on-chain derivatives thesis.
Initial impacts
- Bitcoin Down
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology -0.2%
Tickers
- COIN+0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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