Possible scenario
Oversold Stocks Rebound
25% Chance
A short-term mean-reversion rally develops in the stocks that have fallen furthest from record highs. The move is led by consumer cyclicals, financials, real estate-linked shares and industrials rather than the existing mega-cap leaders.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +1.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
- Industrials +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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