Managed Strike Pressure

The most likely path is that UGT and CCOO stage a large but controlled November 11 general strike, keeping the housing crisis at the center of the campaign without forcing an institutional rupture. Pedro Sánchez uses the mobilization to consolidate left-wing voters before the November 29 snap election, while transport and public services operate under minimum-service rules.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.