Possible scenario
Inflation Finally Cools
20% Chance
A softer inflation or labor-market reading could quickly unwind part of the hawkish repricing. Because yields have already moved sharply higher, even modestly cooler data would trigger a relief rally in duration-sensitive assets.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Bitcoin Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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