Possible scenario
Hike Becomes Baseline
40% Chance
The most likely path is that the October FOMC hike becomes the market base case, but not a full-blown policy shock. Broad core inflation and 10-year yields above 5.3% leave Jerome Powell and other Fed officials little room to push back against tightening expectations.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.5%
- Utilities -1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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