Possible scenario
Hawkish Inflation Shock
25% Chance
A further inflation surprise would make the current repricing look incomplete. If incoming data confirm that services and shelter inflation remain broad-based, markets may price a second hike or even discuss a larger October move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -3.6%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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