Possible scenario
Negotiated Partial Reopening
27% Chance
Back-channel diplomacy produces a partial reopening that lets most commercial vessels move under monitoring arrangements. Iran preserves political leverage, but the immediate tail risk of a full oil-supply cutoff falls.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +2.2%
- Energy -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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