Possible scenario
Paxton Keeps Edge
40% Chance
Ken Paxton turns the 'proof of life' taunt into a broader argument that James Talarico is untested and too liberal for Texas. Republican consolidation, Trump’s endorsement, and Texas’s long GOP Senate streak keep Paxton ahead.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.