Possible scenario
Direct US Clash
20% Chance
Iran follows through on its threat by striking a U.S. or allied military asset connected to Indian Ocean operations. Washington responds with additional strikes on Iranian launch sites, command nodes, or naval assets, making the Indian Ocean a live theater of the war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +6.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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