Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
35% Chance
Iran keeps the Indian Ocean warning as deterrent signaling rather than immediately broadening the battlefield. U.S. naval escorts increase around the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, and approaches to the Arabian Sea, but both sides avoid a direct strike that would force wider retaliation.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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