Possible scenario
Hype Deflates Quickly
18% Chance
The market concludes that the Zhihu code was overinterpreted or that Kimi K3.1 is an incremental update rather than a step-change reasoning model. The correction is concentrated in sentiment around Moonshot and rival Chinese AI-app expectations.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.6%
- Business Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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