Possible scenario
Narrow Democratic Senate
42% Chance
Democrats convert the polling movement into a narrow Senate takeover, helped by weak Trump approval, candidate-quality problems for Republicans, and strong suburban turnout. The likeliest path runs through North Carolina’s open seat and Ohio’s special election for Jon Husted’s seat, with one additional pickup in a competitive red or purple state.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.4%
- Finance -0.4%
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Utilities
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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