Possible scenario
Broader Democratic Wave
16% Chance
The red-state polling proves to be an early sign of a larger anti-Trump midterm wave. Democrats win the Senate comfortably and likely improve their House position, raising the odds of investigations, tighter oversight, and resistance to Republican fiscal and deregulatory priorities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.9%
- Energy -0.9%
- Healthcare
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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