Possible scenario
Hawkish Consensus Builds
40% Chance
Hammack’s call for additional rate increases is interpreted as part of a broader FOMC bias after officials backed the September hike. Markets conclude the Fed is more focused on inflation still near 3% core PCE than on the latest undershoot versus forecasts.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Bitcoin Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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